Page 10 - ISQ October 2022
P. 10

INVESTMENT STRATEGY QUARTERLY


                           S&P 500 Companies Mentioning ‘Offshoring’
                               S&P 500 Companies Mentioning 'O shoring' During
                                  During Earnings or Conference Calls
                                           Earnings or Conference Calls
                      400
                      350
                      300
                      250
                      200
                      150
                      100
                       50
                       0
                        2012         2014          2016         2018         2020          2022
                     Source: FactSet, as of 20/09/2022
        that if attacked, Taiwan would, at the very least, reduce its   while the US and other developed economies will likely be able to
        production and export of goods and if factories were to be damaged,   shift their trading needs to other countries, the impact of this
        it could take a while for them to come back online. This is not to say   transition would surely be substantial. In fact, an adjustment of this
        that a war between these two nations is about to erupt, as we   nature would be certain to take time, and, in simple economic
        believe it is in neither country’s best interest. However, we saw how   terms, limited competition would ultimately lead to higher prices.
        quickly the situation precipitated in Europe earlier this year, and
        that’s why investors need to be prepared for all sorts of outcomes.  MADE IN AMERICA
                                                            With two massively disruptive events in just over two years and the
        A conflict between Taiwan and China, and the probable   potential for a multitude of unpredictable events brewing in the
        involvement of other global superpowers, would have all sorts of   future, nations are starting to consider options to mitigate future
        negative consequences, and its repercussions would likely be felt   potential supply chain disruptions. The goal is to regain control
        for years if not decades. In addition to the countless lives that could   over the end-to-end supply chain by reducing exposure to external
        be lost, a conflict of this size and scope could have tremendous   risks, which would otherwise not be present if the manufacturing
        inflationary impacts worldwide, as costs would soar, and profit   process wasn’t outsourced. This issue is not new, but only ~30% of
        margins would be squeezed. The US is the world’s largest importer   companies in the S&P 500 are discussing ‘offshoring’ in their
        of goods, of which approximately one-fifth comes from China, and


                                                    Reshoring

                              The practice of transferring a business operation that was moved overseas
                                    back to the country from which it was originally relocated.
                                      PROS:                                  CONS:


                               CONTROL OF SUPPLY CHAIN               LACK OF SKILLED LABOUR
                                 REDUCED LEAD TIMES                       LABOUR COST
                                 (less distance traveled)
                                                                       RESOURCE SCARCITY
                                FEWER IMPORT TARIFFS
                                                                   INITIAL INVESTMENT REQUIRED
                                 LOCAL JOB CREATION
                                                                          HIGHER COST

                        Source: Raymond James Investment Strategy



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