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A Swing in the Senate?

With more than one-third of Senate seats on the ballot, will the Democrats
swing party control or will Republicans maintain the majority?

53 47 Most Competitive

REPUBLICANS TO HOLD DEMOCRATS Races
MAJORITY:
51 Alabama

Arizona
SEATS Colorado
Georgia (2)
Iowa
Kansas
Maine
Michigan
Montana
North Carolina
South Carolina
Republican secure seats Democratic secure seats
Republican seats on the Democratic seats on the
ballot ballot

president until a president is chosen. If neither chamber is able There are 35 Senate seats on the ballot this fall, with Republicans
to select their choice, the presidency is transferred by the consti- defending 23 seats and Democrats 12. Republicans currently
tutional order of succession. This scenario could produce hold a three seat majority, 53-47. In tracking Senate races over
surprise outcomes such as a split party president/vp; or an the last two years, race ratings since the beginning of the election
acting president Mike Pence, Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Chuck cycle show that Democrats have expanded the playing field and
Grassley (R-IA), or Patrick Leahy (D-VT). Again, this is a very are viewed as being competitive in more states than initially
remote possibility – but it is important to know procedures in a anticipated. We will have to wait and see if that translates into
year that’s shown volatility and uncertainty can quickly become victories, and potentially a Senate majority on November 3.
the dominant theme.
A key factor to keep in mind is the impact of the national pres-
THE BATTLE FOR THE SENATE idential race on individual Senate races. In the current
Policy in the next presidential term will run through the Senate. politically polarised environment, ‘ticket splitting’ in which
As such, markets will be closely watching the outcome of key voters make different party choices down-ballot is largely
Senate races for their potential to swing party control of the dead. In the 2016 election, state Senate races matched the
Senate to Democrats for the first time since 2014. In a Democratic state’s presidential preference in all cases for the first time in
sweep, we will be debating the market impact of the anticipated history – a trend likely to continue in 2020. If this trend con-
additional fiscal support for the economy vs. the increased prob- tinues, a Biden presidency has a decent likelihood of producing
ability of tax changes. Discussion on the potential elimination of a Democratic majority in the Senate. A second term for Presi-
the filibuster (lowering the threshold from 60 votes to a simple
majority to pass legislation) would have a significant impact on dent Trump, however, would likely retain a Republican
what type of legislative agenda could occur in a Democratic majority and preserve the current makeup of government.
sweep. Confirmations of key cabinet positions, judges, and regu-
latory agencies will also be closely examined to determine the
direction of policymaking.

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