Page 16 - ISQ October 2020

INVESTMENT STRATEGY QUARTERLY

the Trump Administration. The Trump campaign believes that
getting a vaccine before the election could move undecided KEY TAKEAWAYS:
voters to him. One challenge is the number of people who are • Unlike many prior crises, the nation has not
either sceptical of, or will refuse to get, the vaccine. become unified in combating this crisis. These

divisions will likely continue to hinder our ability
IMPACT ON THE ELECTION as a nation to most effectively combat this crisis.
COVID-19 is likely to impact the election in other ways. For
example, if we see a major up-tick in cases right before the elec- • We have shown a capacity to flatten the curve as a
tion it could urge voters to want new leadership. Additionally, country. Given behaviors, we will likely continue to
see surges in cases in different states and regions
until we reach herd immunity through infection
or a vaccine. Public health leaders will have to
The impact of the pandemic is likely to
continue to impact nearly every area of our continue to play ‘Whack-a-Mole’ as new hot spots
lives from educating children, to what travel we emerge.
partake in, to how we chose to vote, and even • If tests become broadly available, we could see
the outcome of the upcoming election. increases in the comfort level of individuals to fly,
attend large gatherings, and participate in other
public group activities.
the logistics of voting in the COVID-19 era and the complica- • Analysis of new data on vaccines continues and
tions of potentially delayed results could have an impact. While it is possible that an emergency use authoriza-
elections can allow for social distancing in lines and in polling tion (EUA), which is not the same as full approval,
centres, fears and inconveniences of voting could result in only could be given by the Food and Drug Administra-
the most enthusiastic voters showing up at the polls. Recent tion (FDA) for a vaccine prior to the end of 2020
polling shows a majority of Republicans plan to vote in person, and possibly before the election.
but a majority of Democrats plan to vote by mail. As a result, we
could have one candidate’s supporters believe that their candi-
date has won on election night, only to find out the other
candidate won once all the votes are counted. Accusations of
voter fraud will likely run rampant, creating uncertainty for the
markets.

The bottom line is this: COVID-19 will remain an issue until we
reach herd immunity or a vaccine that is widely used arrives.
The impact of the pandemic is likely to continue to impact
nearly every area of our lives from educating children, to what
travel we partake in, to how we chose to vote, and even the out-
come of the upcoming election.

All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author, and are subject to change.

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