Page 16 - ISQ UK Aprl 2020

INVESTMENT STRATEGY QUARTERLY APRIL 2020

On the Ropes to Presumptive Nominee:

Biden’s Historic Resurgence

Ed Mills, Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst, Equity Research

A whirlwind Democratic primary appears to be nearing
its conclusion with Vice President Biden emerging as the A female vice-presidential candidate will be on any
presumptive nominee (in our view) following a come- Biden-led ticket, according to a pledge made by Biden at
the last debate.
from-behind victory in South Carolina and a near-sweep
in state victories through March. Biden currently leads
Sanders with 1,215 delegates to Sanders’ 909, a sizeable
candidate to emerge as the nominee without having won Iowa or
lead (1,991 delegates are needed to clinch the New Hampshire was Bill Clinton in 1992, but Clinton technically
nomination on the first ballot). tied New Hampshire’s popular vote winner (Tsongas) in the
delegate count. It would be easy to say that Biden was expected
to win the South Carolina primary, so the results were somewhat
in line with expectations. However, his margin of victory
Joe Biden 1,215 delegates (especially following distant finishes in the early states) is
extremely noteworthy. In the lead up to South Carolina, there
were a series of polls that showed Senator Sanders right on
Bernie Sanders 909 delegates Biden’s heels. Unfortunately for Sanders, he emerged from South
Carolina not much better than his 2016 result, which is ultimately
where his momentum stalled out again in the 2020 race.
1,991 delegates are required to obtain the nomination.
The winner of either the Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina The coalescence behind Joe Biden as the clear alternative to
primary has gone on to become the Democratic nominee since Senator Bernie Sanders produced a much better than expected
1952. As such, there is no recent historical comparison to Biden’s Super Tuesday result for the former Vice President. Former New
resurgence to the top of the pack after finishing a distant fourth or York City Mayor Bloomberg picked up delegates, but massively
fifth place in Iowa and New Hampshire. The last Democratic underperformed expectations given he spent half a billion dollars

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