Page 11 - ISQ UK Aprl 2020

The East Asian Response

Chris Bailey, European Strategist, Raymond
James Investment Services Ltd.

‘To know what you know and what you do
not know, that is true knowledge’
- Confucius

The history books will be the ultimate arbiters on China’s response Shanghai subway system is busy, traffic jams are occurring in Beijing
and data disclosures around the COVID-19 virus. The magnitude - in and across the country people can now sit together in their favourite
true reality - of Chinese total cases and deaths may never be coffee or tea shop. Scrape below the surface, however, and it
sufficiently fully disclosed to satisfy some observers. However, what becomes obvious that lockdown alone is not the reason for the
is more tangible is the aggressive and ultimately successful response ability of China, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong to have great
over recent months of the Chinese authorities to a virus which success in trying to move on from COVID-19 fears directly dominating
threatened the stability of the world’s largest emerging market. economic and social life.
China’s economy will struggle to produce a growth rate even close
to that anticipated by central planners at the turn of the year, but Face mask culture in East Asia (in prior years mainly to guard against
the response playbook developed within its borders as well as colds or pollution) may have been helpful at-the-margin, along with
elsewhere in East Asia has already been deeply influential around a wide range of temperature monitoring devices at airports and
the world. retail destinations, but big data is at the heart of the region’s
seemingly successful pushing back against the virus threat. With an
By the end of March - scarcely two months after the Lunar New Year unseen enemy such as COVID-19, any ability to identify and monitor
period that occurred under progressively tighter and tighter the infected can be hugely helpful given its likely material impact on
lockdown conditions - economic life in cities across China (including the reproduction rate (i.e. how many uninfected people an infected
amazingly the epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak, Wuhan in Hubei person will infect). If you can push this to less than one and keep it
province) is progressively returning to normal. Once again, the there, even the most persistent of viruses will naturally fade away.

Percentage of citizens who are satisfied/dissatisfied
with the response of their fellow citizens to COVID-19

100%
80%

60%
40%

20%
0%
China Germany U.K U.S
Satisfied Dissatisfied Neither

Source: Statista Survey (undertaken 23 - 30 March)

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