Page 11 - ISQ UK Aprl 2020
P. 11

The East Asian Response

           Chris Bailey, European Strategist, Raymond
           James Investment Services Ltd.

           ‘To know what you know and what you do
           not know, that is true knowledge’
                                        - Confucius






           The history books will be the ultimate arbiters on China’s response   Shanghai subway system is busy, traffic jams are occurring in Beijing
           and data disclosures around the COVID-19 virus. The magnitude - in   and across the country people can now sit together in their favourite
           true reality - of Chinese total cases and deaths may never be   coffee or tea shop. Scrape below the surface, however, and it
           sufficiently fully disclosed to satisfy some observers. However, what   becomes obvious that lockdown alone is not the reason for the
           is more tangible is the aggressive and ultimately successful response   ability of China, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong to have great
           over recent months of the Chinese authorities to a virus which   success in trying to move on from COVID-19 fears directly dominating
           threatened the stability of the world’s largest emerging market.   economic and social life.
           China’s economy will struggle to produce a growth rate even close
           to that anticipated by central planners at the turn of the year, but   Face mask culture in East Asia (in prior years mainly to guard against
           the response playbook developed within its borders as well as   colds or pollution) may have been helpful at-the-margin, along with
           elsewhere in East Asia has already been deeply influential around   a wide range of temperature monitoring devices at airports and
           the world.                                         retail destinations, but big data is at the heart of the region’s
                                                              seemingly successful pushing back against the virus threat. With an
           By the end of March - scarcely two months after the Lunar New Year   unseen enemy such as COVID-19, any ability to identify and monitor
           period that occurred under progressively tighter and tighter   the infected can be hugely helpful given its likely material impact on
           lockdown conditions - economic life in cities across China (including   the reproduction rate (i.e. how many uninfected people an infected
           amazingly the epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak, Wuhan in Hubei   person will infect). If you can push this to less than one and keep it
           province)  is  progressively returning  to  normal. Once again,  the   there, even the most persistent of viruses will naturally fade away.




                                Percentage of citizens who are satisfied/dissatisfied
                                with the response of their fellow citizens to COVID-19



                                100%
                                 80%

                                 60%
                                 40%

                                 20%
                                  0%
                                          China       Germany         U.K          U.S
                                               Satisfied   Dissatisfied  Neither



                                Source: Statista Survey (undertaken 23 - 30 March)





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