Page 17 - ISQ UK Aprl 2020

INVESTMENT STRATEGY QUARTERLY

Democratic Primary Battleground

Biden
Sanders

on his campaign. Senator Elizabeth Warren came up short, date, nine states and Puerto Rico have postponed their
including a loss in her home state of Massachusetts. However, she primaries which leaves the race in a state of limbo, and we
may have been an unsung hero for the Biden campaign given that expect the list to grow (New York’s primary is still scheduled for
she used the last two debates to halt the rise of Bloomberg and the end of April, potentially around the peak of the state’s
that she likely pulled liberal voters from Sanders. From there, outbreak, per current projections).
Democratic voters overwhelmingly pivoted toward Biden as he
stacked up a series of impressive wins and expanded his delegate As these primary reschedules ramp up, the Sanders campaign
lead over Senator Sanders. Biden also quickly racked up and Democrats could be faced with challenging logistics on how
endorsements from his rivals, and his coalition is now being to finalise the process of selecting their nominee. The clearest
compared to that of President Obama’s in 2008. Biden’s victory in path forward would be for Sanders to drop out of the race, making
Michigan was of particular note, given that it was previously won Biden the presumptive nominee. Alternatively, the Sanders
by Sanders in 2016 and ultimately helped to reinvigorate/prolong campaign could hold out hope that the political winds change
Sanders’ challenge to Secretary Clinton. when voting resumes. We view this as unlikely, as Sanders would
have to win the remaining contests by a margin of about 25
The overall vote totals to date have supported the narrative that points, per election forecasters.
Senator Sanders is a high floor, but low ceiling candidate. Sanders
won the delegate-rich state of California, his home state of EARLY VEEPSTAKES
Vermont, as well as Utah and Colorado. However, he fell short of A female vice-presidential candidate will be on any Biden-led
the earlier delegate projections where he easily could have built ticket, according to a pledge made by Biden at the last debate.
an all but insurmountable lead in the delegate count. Senator The final selection likely hinges on the political environment that
Sanders consistently underperformed his 2016 vote totals, emerges in the coming months related to COVID-19. Senator Amy
especially in Missouri and Michigan. Klobuchar (D-MN) is seen as a ‘safer, more moderate’ pick. Senator
Kamala Harris (D-CA) will be in the mix, but her personal attacks
THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 – FLOCK TO THE against Biden during the debates and the lacklustre performance
FAMILIAR? of her campaign are viewed as knocks against her. Stacey Abrams
The spread of COVID-19 has upended the race in an unprecedented of Georgia could be a pick that excites younger and African
and uncertain way, which may still have ramifications on the American voters. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is also reported
Democratic convention depending on the trajectory of the to be in the mix, if there is a need to have a bridge to the liberal wing
outbreak. This uncertainty may have contributed to Biden’s of the party. Given that Biden would be the oldest elected president
late-stage resurgence as voters may have been swayed more on inauguration day, his pick takes on additional importance which
toward the safe and familiar choice during uncertain times. To could swing the odds toward a safer pick.

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