Page 5 - ISQ UK_October 2017

APRIL 2019

Brexit Sentiment: The Latest

You Gov's latest poll asks the question:
"If Britain has not agreed a deal by 12 April, what do you think should happen?"

Where extension is an option: If the EU refuses to give an extension:

13% 14%

40%
44%

36%
42%

11%

No deal Extension Remain Don't know No deal Extension Remain Don't know
Source: YouGov polling 31 March - 1 April 2019

world trade, and try to get more competitive regardless of the There is an old joke about U.K.-European relations which observes
eventual Brexit realities, be it building new relations in new ‘fog in the Channel - Continent isolated’. Certainly the fogs of
markets, utilising technology to shorten supply chains, and Brexit introspection, reams of ill-informed statistics, ‘red lines’
embedding agile practices throughout their business. Instead all and ideologically held views materially coloured both the
the focus is on a Parliamentary crisis which has raised eyebrows referendum back in 2016 and the subsequent political discussion
around the world and induced global investors to reduce their about the nature and style of a deal that can pass Parliament and
exposure to U.K. assets and capped the value of the Pound on the move the U.K. formally to the post Brexit epoch. Finding a
world’s foreign exchange markets. compromise today is not a sign of weakness but a sign of drawing
a line under this debate and starting a bigger one about the
It still strikes me as unusual that after all this time and debate the dynamic future position of the U.K. economy.
current closest potential Parliamentary solution to Brexit - or at
least the one to date with the closest to majority support - is (re)
forging a customs union with the rest of the European Union, a
policy that retains many of the trade structures currently available
for the U.K. as part of the European Union, but one where the U.K.
no longer has a guaranteed seat the table to decide rules and KEY TAKEAWAYS:
regulations. Maybe this is why options including a range of cross- • We are still awaiting for the U.K. Parliament to agree a
party members of Parliament presenting a bill ruling out a no-deal way to proceed on Brexit.
scenario, or even a long delay to Article 50, which means the U.K.
has to participate in May’s European Parliamentary elections are • With the timetable now deep into the twelfth hour
still floating around. However the progress of time and the (or maybe even beyond it), the uncertainty of a
imminent deadlines later this month and just before the European potentially messy ‘no-deal’ has certainly risen.
Parliamentary elections have even made compromise proposals • Finding a compromise today is not a sign of weakness
even more of a compromise. Still, even a late in the day effort at a but a sign of drawing a line under this debate.
compromise that gives some legislative certainty should be
preferred by industrialists, entrepreneurs and consumers alike. • The bigger challenge of the U.K.’s competitive
The real challenges lay in competing in the big bad world out position in the global economy remains to be tackled
there - even if inhibited by the range of current trade deals and irrespective of the final form of any Brexit agreement.
market access capabilities being impacted.

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