Page 4 - ISQ UK_October 2017

INVESTMENT STRATEGY QUARTERLY

Searching for a Brexit Compromise

Chris Bailey, European Strategist, Raymond James Investment Services

As the writer and philosopher George Santayana once

observed: ‘Those who cannot remember the past are “You can compromise without violating
condemned to repeat it’. Back in the 19th Century, more your principles, but it is nearly impossible
specifically between 1815 and 1846, the ‘Corn Laws’ kept to compromise when you turn principles
grain prices high via the use of tariffs and other protectionist into ideology”
mechanisms in order to favour domestic producers. However, – Jamie Dimon

following vociferous lobbying by urban dwellers motivated
by a desire for more plentiful and cheaper food, the Prime
Minister of the day - Sir Robert Peel of the Conservative Party covering a range of other Brexit scenarios and options have also
- achieved repeal with the support of the Whigs in Parliament, failed to get a majority in Parliament. The words of Jamie Dimon
quoted above may have been uttered about about a different
overcoming the opposition of most of his own party (albeit at
subject, but they certainly ring true as regards Brexit. With the
the cost of ultimately losing his position as Prime Minister). timetable now deep into the twelfth hour (or maybe even beyond
it), the uncertainty of a potentially messy ‘no-deal’ has certainly
There is a certain irony that whilst the repeal of the Corn Laws is risen.
perceived as a decisive shift toward free trade, the great fear of
Brexit is that a messy exit risks unpicking much of the trade In short - much to the chagrin of a growing proportion of the
flexibility developed over the last generation. And so it passes electorate - so much time has elapsed but so little real progress in
that another Conservative Prime Minister has reached out in early clarifying the preferred end form of Brexit has been made.
April to opposition groups in order - potentially - to try to Naturally the real energy by now should be going into working
overcome elements of her own party and formal coalition out how to make the post Brexit period work given the result of
partners who so far have voted in insufficient numbers in favour the 2016 referendum was a preference to leave the European
of her negotiated deal. And of course the net negative voting does Union. When I look at the dynamic but competitive world out
not end there as - to date - a good number of indicative votes there, U.K. businesses must acknowledge the new realities of

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