Page 13 - ISQ UK_October 2021
P. 13

OCTOBER 2021





           Growth Differential and Relative Performance Are Highly Correlated

            Emerging markets tend to grow faster than advanced economies, with the relative performance of equity markets closely tied to the
           directional trends. While emerging markets have lagged, we expect rising vaccination rates and a strong global recovery to turn the
           growth differential back in their favour.



                       5 4                                                                      0.50


                      Relative Growth Differential (%)  3 2                                     0.30 Relative Performance (Ratio)
                                                                                                0.40





                                                                                                0.20






                       0 1                                                                      0.10
                                                                                                0.00
                          '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 Est. Est.
                                                                                         '21 '22
                                    EM - DM Growth Differential  Relative Peformance of MSCI EM vs MSCI World



          Share of Global Growth

          The International Monetary Fund expects emerging markets to capture an increasingly larger share of global growth on a purchasing-
          power parity basis in the coming years, making their economic importance hard to ignore.

          * Dotted lines represent forecasted numbers


                    65%

                                                                                                  *


                    55%




                    45%


                                                                                                  *

                    35%
                        2000          2005          2010          2015           2020          2025
                                      Advanced Economies      Emerging Market and Developing Economies

                   Source: IMF, as of 9/15/2021



                                                                                                                13
   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18