Page 7 - ISQ UK_October 2017

OCTOBER 2018

The Midterm March to Majority

Due to the current composition of the Senate,
Democrats face an uphill battle to obtain the majority.

51 49
REPUBLICANS TO HOLD DEMOCRATS
MAJORITY:
51
SEATS

4 Competitive 11 Competitive
Republican Seats Democratic Seats

Arizona Tennessee Florida North Dakota
Nevada Texas Indiana Ohio
Michigan Pennsylvania
Missouri West Virginia
NEED 2 Montana Wisconsin
HOUSE AND SENATE BY THE NUMBERS SEATS New Jersey
Members of the House of Representatives serve a two-year term,
and all 435 members are up for re-election in November.
Republicans currently enjoy a 44-seat majority with 237 seats
compared to 193 seats for Democrats. Five seats are currently Generally, the lower the President’s job approval numbers, the
vacant. The party with at least 218 seats has a majority in the worse the President’s party performs in the election. In 2018,
House. President Trump has consistently polled a net disapproval rating
with the latest available data showing a net disapproval rating of
Senators serve six-year terms and one-third of the Senate is on the 9.3%. Comparatively, President Obama’s net disapproval reached a
ballot every two years. This year that number is elevated to 35 of high of 5.3% at the same point in his first term leading up to the
the 100 senators due to an early retirement and resignation of two 2010 midterm elections, which saw Republicans gaining 63 House
senators. Republicans hold 51 Senate seats, while Democrats hold seats to claim the majority – the largest swing since 1938.
47 (along with Bernie Sanders and Angus King, two independents
who caucus with the Democrats). Given that Vice President Pence So far this year, Democrats have consistently led in the generic
serves as a tiebreaking vote, Democrats would need to net two Congressional ballot, reaching a high of 12.1%. Comparatively,
seats for a majority following November’s election. Republicans polled as high as 10% in 2010. The current Democratic
advantage is 6.9%. Democrats are also showing an advantage in
Although gaining two Senate seats appears to be an easily voter enthusiasm, particularly in toss-up states.
achievable target in the current political environment that suggests
a Democratic tailwind, Democrats are defending 26 Senate seats Election watchers typically pay attention to retirements and
compared to nine for Republicans. Ten Democrats are running in candidates seeking other offices ahead of the election cycle to gauge
states won by President Trump, including ruby red states like North the candidates’ sentiment. According to Pew Research, the current
Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, and Indiana. Republicans are only number of House Republicans voluntarily giving up their seats –
defending one seat in a state won by Hillary Clinton (Nevada). including House Speaker Paul Ryan – is at its highest since 1930.
Structurally, Republicans have the advantage to maintain the
majority in the Senate. PROJECTION AND OUTLOOK
Based on the current trajectory and historical comparisons, our
The midterm elections are historically challenging for the incumbent
party. Since 1938, the party holding the White House has lost seats base case for the 2018 midterms is Republicans retaining a Senate
in Congress in all but two midterm election cycles. The average loss majority with the House switching to Democratic majority control. A
for the incumbent party is 26 House seats. Republican Senate and a Democratic House could potentially create

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