Page 3 - April ISQ 2021

APRIL 2021

the lack of robust, if any, earnings over the next 12 to 18 are an organic occurrence in the market and there is no
months. Our observation is that selectivity will become shortage of possible toxic risks. In particular, investors must
more important at the sector, industry, and individual watch for boiling points in the economy, inflation, investor
stock level as we begin the bull market’s second year. exuberance, partisan politics, geopolitical tensions, and vac-
cine-evasive variant COVID-19 strains. However, chemistry
Our Theory of Relativity isn’t as sophisticated as Einstein’s
original one. We just believe that the relatively higher growth with an adviser who understands the elements of risk toler-
trajectory of the US equity market makes it more attractive ance, diversification, liquidity needs, and long-term
than other developed markets. Given its superior vaccination investment goals should help in designing your formula for
progress, state of reopening and aggressive policy stimulus, success.
the US economy has generated the highest upward revisions The last year has been a challenge for most of us. As we
to GDP forecasts among the world’s ten largest economies so approach a sustainable reopening this quarter, the old saying
far this year. Since Asian emerging markets are relatively less “With spring comes new life and hope” may be truer than ever
expensive, a substantial rebound in economic growth (both this year!’
China and India are growing over 8%) should drive those mar-
kets as well.
As global economies emerge from lockdown and economic
growth accelerates, commodities have benefitted. In partic- Lawrence V. Adam, III, CFA, CIMA®, CFP®
ular, rebounding demand drove global oil from its state of Chief Investment Officer, Private Client Group
inertia as crude prices have returned to pre-pandemic levels.
However, now that oil prices are higher, watch for producers
in the US, OPEC, and Russia to increase production. With
supply and demand on the same wavelength, the recent price
momentum is likely to be tempered by rising supply. As a
result, we have only modestly raised our year-end West Texas
Intermediate oil target to $70 from $65.
The start of 2021 has been far more enjoyable for investors
than the start of 2020, and while market volatility is likely to
be more palatable in the year ahead, it does not lessen the
importance of adhering to your asset allocation. Pullbacks

Investment Strategy Committee Members

Lawrence V. Adam, III, CFA, CIMA®, CFP® – Committee President,
Chief Investment Officer, Private Client Group Nicholas Lacy, CFA Chief Portfolio Strategist, Asset Management Services
Chris Bailey European Strategist, Raymond James Investment Services Joey Madere, CFA Senior Portfolio Analyst, Equity Portfolio & Technical
Ltd.* Strategy
Scott J. Brown, PhD Chief Economist, Raymond James
Ed Mills Managing Director, Washington Policy Analyst, Equity Research
James C. Camp, CFA Managing Director, Strategic Income,
Eagle Asset Management* Pavel Molchanov Director, Energy Analyst, Equity Research
Doug Drabik Managing Director, Fixed Income Research
Chief Investment Office
J. Michael Gibbs Managing Director, Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy
Anne B. Platt, AWMA®, AIF®, RICP® – Committee Chair, Vice President,
Nick Goetze Managing Director, Fixed Income Solutions
Investment Strategy & Product Positioning, Investment Strategy
Giampiero Fuentes Investment Strategy Manager, Investment Strategy
Kailey Bodine Investment Strategy Analyst, Investment Strategy

*An affiliate of Raymond James & Associates, Inc., and Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.
Investments & Wealth InstituteTM (The Institute) is the owner of the certification marks “CIMA” and “Certified Investment Management Analyst.” Use of CIMA and/or Certified
Investment Management Analyst signifies that the user has successfully completed The Institute’s initial and ongoing credentialing requirements for investment management
professionals. 3
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, Certified Financial Planner™ and federally registered CFP (with flame logo) in the U.S.,
which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.